Analysis of New Student Admission Dynamics Using SPMA Model

Fatmah Syarah* -  Program Studi Matematika, Fakultas Sains dan Teknologi, UIN Syarif Hidayatullah Jakarta, Indonesia
Budi Irwansyah -  Program Studi Pendidikan Matematika, Fakultas Tarbiyah dan Ilmu Keguruan, Institut Agama Islam Negeri Langsa, Indonesia
Almira Amir -  UIN Syekh Ali Hasan Ahmad Addary Padangsidimpuan, Indonesia
Yenny Suzana -  Program Studi Pendidikan Matematika, Fakultas Tarbiyah dan Ilmu Keguruan, Institut Agama Islam Negeri Langsa, Indonesia

Abstract


This study proposes an SPMA (Skeptical–Persuaded–Motivated–Applicants) model to analyze the dynamics of student enrollment at SMP Negeri 3 Langsa during 2015–2025. The model divides prospective parents into four compartments: skeptical, persuaded, motivated, and applicants. Transitions between compartments are governed by media influence, social interaction, motivation formation, enrollment conversion, and attrition rates. Parameter estimation was performed using least-squares curve fitting through piecewise and piecewise-continuous simulations. The results indicate that social interaction plays a more important role than media exposure in influencing parental decisions. The conversion rate from motivation to actual enrollment is relatively high, suggesting that motivated parents are likely to complete the enrollment process. However, the transition from persuasion to motivation remains low, while attrition is still significant. These findings highlight the importance of strengthening parent–school communication, alumni networks, and community engagement rather than relying solely on media promotion. The proposed SPMA model provides a useful analytical framework for understanding enrollment dynamics and supporting more effective student recruitment strategies.

Keywords


Compartmental Model; Dynamics of Enrollment; Epidemiological Approach; New Student Admission; Secondary School.

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References


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DOI: https://doi.org/10.24952/logaritma.v14i01.20222

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