Medan City Unemployment Rate Prediction Using the Fuzzy Time Series Method of the Chen Model for 2022-2024

Abstract

Indonesia is one of the developing countries based on the standard of living; one of the problems that is still being experienced is the problem of unemployment. One method that can be used to predict future conditions is the Fuzzy Time Series Method. The fuzzy Time Series method combines fuzzy logic with time series analysis, where fuzzy logic aims to imitate the human ability to think, which is an alternative to crisp logic. Unemployment is a problem in the life sector that can impact not only yourself and your family but also the country because high unemployment can cause severe impacts, such as a decrease in state income from the tax sector or an increase in crime in society. This study aims to predict the open unemployment rate in the city of Medan, which will continue to increase from 2018-2021, based on the number of the workforce as a consideration for making a policy. The method used is Fuzzy Time Series Chen. The result obtained of discussion and calculation, the unemployment rate prediction in 2022 is 11,998.14; in 2023, it is 11,791.21; and in 2024, it is 11,687.75 people.